The Federal Statistical Office has published the number of deaths for the first quarter. As in the previous year, no excess mortality can be identified for 2021. Currently, the number of deaths is even below the average of the three previous years.
German Federal Statistical: Currently no excess mortality despite pandemic
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At the end of the first quarter of 2021, the number of deaths was already the seventh week in a row below the average of the comparative period of the three previous years, according to the data now published by the Federal Statistical Office.
According to this, a total of 18,152 people died in Germany in the 13th calendar week (from March 29 to April 4). That is 1,077 people or around six percent fewer than the average for the last three years. Up to and including the sixth calendar week (February 8-14), the number of deaths was still above the average of the three previous years. In the seventh calendar week, there was a trend reversal that lasted until the end of the quarter.
While 105,874 people died in January, 17,991 people or around 20 percent more than the average of the three previous years, in February there were 81,316 deaths and thus 3,065 deaths or around four percent less than the average of the three previous years. For March, the Federal Statistical Office reports 81,359 deceased, which corresponds to 9,714 deceased or around eleven percent less than the three-year average of the comparison period.
However, excess mortality cannot be assumed. A total of 268,549 people died in the first quarter, 5,212 or around two percent more than in the first quarter of the average for the three previous years. However, this corresponds relatively exactly to the data for the first quarter of 2017 and is even around three percent below the number of deaths in 2018 – the flu was particularly strong this year.
he proportion of COVID-19 deaths even in the first four calendar weeks was almost never higher than a fifth (week 1: 22 percent, week 2: 20 percent, week 3: 19 percent, week 4: 18 percent). If one also takes into account that, according to the RKI definition, not only those who actually died of SARS-CoV-2, but also those who died with SARS-CoV-2 are counted as COVID-19 deaths, the proportion of “real” COVID should be counted 19 deaths are even lower than the total number of deaths.
The Federal Statistical Office attributes the “below average death rate” in recent weeks to an “extremely mild flu wave”.
Cource: RT translate german